I have questions of my own.
But I'd prefer to get everyone involved.
So, please ask your questions in the comments section below between now and June 20th.
But I'd prefer to get everyone involved.
So, please ask your questions in the comments section below between now and June 20th.
I will ask as many of your questions as possible.
If you simply have advice for management please post that below too. Management will be reading everything here.
I will transcribe the interview soon after talking to Rob.
The interview will then be published here on the blog AND also on major investing sites I've contributed to previously (see HERE and HERE).
Big thanks to IR Chief Andrew Johnson for making this happen.
And thank you in advance for your questions.
If you simply have advice for management please post that below too. Management will be reading everything here.
I will transcribe the interview soon after talking to Rob.
The interview will then be published here on the blog AND also on major investing sites I've contributed to previously (see HERE and HERE).
Big thanks to IR Chief Andrew Johnson for making this happen.
And thank you in advance for your questions.
My hope is this forum will generate many high quality questions (and answers) that we can all benefit from.
31 comments:
I'd like to know more about their distributor strategy. They say they are looking for two new blue chip distributors in foreign markets. What I'd be curious to know is how they are thinking about US distributors, and what factors are preventing a more rapid rollout, both with Watsons and overall? Also, how important are third-party distributors, as opposed to direct-to-consumer sales?
I would like to know if this has been used or tested for cystic acne.
I would like to know the executive summary of the marketing plan that the CMO has presented, if any.
At the top of my mind is this: Why do International distributors take priority over US distributors?
My question is have they tackled the bioavailability issue? If not why? This is an extremely important issue to resolve as soon as possible.
Another question is why not giving Watson all the markets they have access to? This slow roll out of international markets Was a very bad idea.
Ezra: As per the question for Rob: I'm interested in knowing what it is about Chromadex that drew him and has kept him involved with the company, since he clearly has some other, very different creative interests.
I second @Mike's questions about international rollout. To me, the non-existent expansion in 2018 is the #1 reason we are a $4 stock. After getting Hong Kong, Macau and Singapore right away with the Watsons deal, it boggles the mind why things are going so slow...all we hear is that Taiwan may be coming in 2019. We need a lot more information on how they are working with Li Ka-shing and what might be the next 5-6 markets with Watsons. And then more about plans with other countries.
Let's learn more about the US as well...other plans besides Amazon and their own site? Walmart? Costco? Target?
Ezra - I would like to know why the 1 month bottle of Tru Niagen (60 pills of 125 mg each) is no longer for sale on Amazon.
Ask him why when Healthspan which was not even a top 20 customer of Chromadex and was worth -$148k in tangible assets why he as a director was paid over $1M by Chromadex for it? Ask him about his experience leading a retail based organisation prior to Chromadex.
When I look at just how passive the Ka Sing group has been it leads me to wonder if the deal all along was they put this $ in for the shares but what they really get is the product at such a reduced rate that all the profit from the sales ends up on the Watson side and the whole deal was a set up to pump the price. I would ask about their margin on the sales through Watson vs say Amazon.
@Thinking on it - Of course they would get a discount. They invested $20MM into the company... Not only CASH but now they can also go to other stores such as Walgreens, cvs, and etc and say hey the largest Asian cosmetic store is carrying us.
@Rockets Oh I don't disagree but given the history of this company, was the Watson deal so one sided that it will never be a winner for Chromadex other than the cash from the dilution and the stock pump?
@Rockets I think the whole sale price to Watson’s is quite reasonable. 100,000 bottles for $2.3 million for the initial order. That is about $23 per bottle.
As an investor, I want to know how Rob sees things, why he believes in Chromadex, what kind of experiences he's had in taking Niagen himself, and how HE (not us) sees Chromadex contributing to the bettermemt of humanity.
As a matter of fact, Rob Fried, I'm wholeheartedly asking you these questions here directly. What an interesting book you could write on your own journey, all your creative film projects, how you came to find Chromadex and how things have moved along because of that. Everybody else is doing it. Why not you?
Ask him when NR sales can start in China, Japan, etc.
And when are the Aarhus study and others going to be published? Is every NR study going to sit in publishing limbo for a year and a half?
@Mike Vs Amazon which I read somewhere is "Sellers pay the greater of the category-specific referral fee or per-item minimum referral fee. The first is usually 15% of the sale price, while the minimum referral fee can be $0, $1 oe $2." So the Amazon sales would be significantly more profitable while at $23 does this even come to break even or are they losing $ on every sale?
@Anne I agree with you sentiments. He’s not going to come out and tell a blogger th timeline of sales for China or Japan or anywhere else. That’s news release material. It seems very unlikely that they discuss anything on bioavailability. Maybe you can get some semblance of an answer about their plans for US or marketing.
So I’d think any questions should be crafted to get an actual response. Provide an outlet for promotion, but the quality of the responses will largely be dictated by the quality of the questions. Lead him into his pitch for what NR could mean for the world and give him a chance to tell us what ailments he is most confident that it can help.
As I’m trying to convince friends and family to try NR, I keep running into “there are no long ranging human trials.” What would be say to that? Why are they going out with the marketing push for NR before they have a significant number of human trials? Some I’ve talked to say that’s a money grab, but I think that a significant reason is that they are trying to give the world the “right to try.”
Basically, I support the concept of giving him a platform to be the story teller that he purportedly in order to sell the idea of consumers, rather than using the forum to answer the questions that investors are curious about (which he will almost certainly dodge anyway).
@Mike And they invested in the company. The first big company to take on the product is the hardest. It's like raising money for a hedge fund, the first is always the hardest.
When are we going to see a big push with marketing TruNiagen in the domestic marketplace? I have a number of friends who operate wellness spa's, vitality clinics, as well as nutritionists offices...all would love to sell TruNiagen in their businesses - Why is TruNiagen not being offered to businesses that promote healthy living? Why are we not seeing TruNiagen target market senior communities and/or partnering with AARP? Finally, back in November, management had stated that they see, "30million people taking TruNiagen daily," - How can this be achieved by only selling on Amazon and your own website with nearly nonexistent advertising? Or do you have an action plan to step up the message and ramp up the sales here at home? If you do, what is the timeline to reach 30 million daily users?
BTW, great job and thanks again for securing a meeting and offering to ask our questions and post your findings. Very very thoughtful and helpful for us all!
@Thinking: I appreciate your diagnosis here. However, the Ka-Shing deal is a positive, period. Even if your conspiracy theory is right, and CDXC makes NO money from Watson's sales... if NR takes over in China and Japan, someday even the US media and upper-class twits will notice. And then CDXC will finally sell some NR here (and in Canada, Mexico, Europe, Musk's city in Valles Marineris, etc.)
Thanks very much for doing this. I guess the two biggest short-term questions are:
Why isn't NR in every Watson's worldwide?
When are we going to see some media coverage of NR in the US? After the Aarhus study finally comes out?
Everything Bill said. When will there be a big marketing push in the USA?
There are many people who have reported gray hair turning back to its natural color. This is very interesting. Does Chromadex have any plans to investigate this from a factual and scientific point of view?
@Ezra Thanks again! First off, I'd like to understand if they were misled in the Watsons deal. Did they really think they could only get into those 3 areas and then did they know there would be all these delays? Weren't they led to believe that Taiwan would open for them in 2018? Are they frustrated at all with Watsons and if not, how are things changing and what is the country by country roadmap going forward?
What's the biggest mistake they made in the last year and what have they done to change?
Do they plan to use celebrities at all to sell Tru Niagen? Wouldn't it be nice to know Betty White was on it for the last 5 years? You get the idea.
Marketing Ideas to relay to ChromaDex:
I don't think the marketing message is there yet. If you are selling NIAGEN, you only have about a minute to make the "elevator pitch". Americans have very quick attention spans. You only have about 1 to 3 minutes total, to tell the story, at best.
These ideas below are going to be something of a surprise. Maybe the new marketing CMO can (gently) get the ad campaign going in the right direction. Believe it or not, marketing is both an art and a science. Marketing has its own world of statistics and correlations.
I don't think there is enough time to talk about NAD, on the opening pitch. I don't think you can spend much time explaining mitochondria either. That is going to turn most people off right away. It's not that people aren't smart -- it's that they are busy and tired. You've got to get their interest in the first 5 seconds, or they will be gone. This is going to be good for them -- you need to use every (honest) marketing trick in the book, to get them to try Tru Niagen. Don't be shy!!! Think of how much you will be helping them!!!
Maybe mention it's a new B vitamin that many customers say helps with energy, sleep patterns, and less brain fog.
Tell them lab tests show that your company sells the only NR which is shelf stable, with no unnecessary toxic chemicals.
Tell them it costs $40 for a 1 month supply, but it can cost as low as $30 a month if they buy in bulk.
That's enough for the opening 30 seconds.
Get rid of the Tennessee (TN) on the graphics please -- too confusing.
Don't get carried away citing scientific studies. Most people don't believe ads which quote scientific studies.
Don't mention Nobel scientists. Most people laugh at geniuses -- they are notorious for being scatter brained.
Develop one message, that can be explained in 30 seconds or less.
Be consistent with the message, and the way the product name is spelled.
Do add in testimonials from real people.
Do add in statistics from groups of people -- "69% of our customers on Amazon give Tru Niagen a 4 or 5 star rating".
Do add in referral statistics whenever possible - "60% of our customers would recommend Tru Niagen to a friend".
Keep the blue bottle, but make it plastic.
Get the language down to an 11th grade level, or as low as the 5th grade -- yes, this is important!
The people you are trying to sell to are called "early adopters" -- study their personality characteristics.
Tell your audience why they should buy it, how much it costs, and why they should buy your brand in 30 seconds or less.
If your audience is still there after 30 seconds, then you can get more sciencey with the info.
Let your customer determine the pace and the topics -- by clicking on "Science" or "Testimonials" or whatever.
Measure everything! Time spent on web site, topics read, how long to click on "Buy", etc.
Remember that the objective is to sell NIAGEN, not to *teach*, not to *inform".
This is not a science lecture in a college.
Primarily your mission is to *sell*, not to teach/preach.
(Yeah, I know -- shocking, isn't it?)
Don't argue with your CMO -- give her a chance to sell.
This is a great product, and it's going to change the world.
OK CHROMADEX - GO GET 'EM TIGER!!! LET ME HEAR YOU ROAR!!! :)
TruNiagen with additional ingredients an option / thoughts?
When does CDXC plan to address the optimal dosing issue? There appears to be a lot of confusion regarding "supportive" dosage-- ie, the so-called "recommended amount" ( 250 MG daily) which Brenner comments is akin to Anti-Malware software running in the background to stave of system attacks VS "therapeutic" dosage which he says is almost certainly to be higher. When will CDXC have dosing guidelines regarding age, weight, sex, and specific health factors? Are they working on this now? Are they funding studies to determine optimal dosage which could better target specific demographics? Brenner implies dosage should be targeted-- I am guessing many would be interested in therapeutic ( and willing to pay more for greater volume) VS maintenance. I know I would.
Ezra --
If you're still taking question, from a post today on the Yahoo board re Patent# 20180147225
1) What is planned to market NR for breast enhancement?
2) Was the hiring of Lisa Bratkovich related to marketing NR in this capacity?
Thank you for reaching out to both CDXC and its investors!
Wilson
WHAT IS THE TOP SAFE DOSAGE LIMIT FOR NIAGEN?
Has a safe top limit for the use of NIAGEN been determined? Clinical trials have shown that NIAGEN is safe and non-toxic, even in a high dose. GRAS 635 and NDIN 882 discuss a recommended amount of NIAGEN, but there is no known evidence which shows any danger in taking a higher amount. GRAS 635 mentions a dose of 3 mg of Tru Niagen per kilogram of body weight. Do the GRAS and NDIN define and mandate a safe and recommended top limit amount of NIAGEN, or do they leave that maximum dosage amount issue open?
WHAT IS THE NIAGEN DOSAGE EQUIVALENCY BETWEEN MICE AND HUMANS?
It is difficult to figure out the equivalency dose of NIAGEN -- to use a dosage amount which is given to a mouse in a clinical trial, and figure out the equivalent dose for a human. For example, one method does the equation with simple math, based on the weight of the mouse and the weight of the human. Another method tries to fine tune the math, because obviously there are differences between mice and humans. A third method looks at lab study results, and tries to gauge the equivalency by comparing clinical trial results in mice versus clinical trial results in humans. Is there a method or general "rule of thumb" that ChromaDex can provide to investors who are researching NIAGEN, in order to quickly estimate what an equivalent dose might be between mice and humans? For example, in the recent patent application number 20180147225, the mice were given 3 grams a day of NIAGEN. What would be a theoretical dose equivalency for humans, if the mice in the study were given 3 grams of NIAGEN per day? Would it be 3 grams a day for humans as well?
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